Labour will probably feel that was a successful conference given the circumstances. But the bar was in hell. Some thoughts:
In terms of delivery this was Keir Starmer’s best speech as Labour leader, but there aren’t many shining examples of the genre.
It was also filled with the contradictions and drift that have hampered his tenure as Prime Minister so far. He will no doubt hope Tuesday 30th September 2025 will go down in history as the day he took the fight to Reform. Starmer accused Nigel Farage of being a ‘snake oil salesman’ who doesn’t have anything good to say about Britain. He made the point that you need to like your country if you want to lead it. No disagreement from me.
But the Prime Minister stretched credulity when he said that Britain “isn’t broken”. If not then why does it feel broken? And why are so many people deserting his party?
Labour was elected last year on a mandate for change and economic growth. They have yet to deliver either. It is testament to his failure in office that he feels the need to take the fight to Reform so early in the Parliament.
Nigel Farage should be irrelevant right now, his party has as many MPs as there are years to the next general election. Labour won a historic mandate in 2024, Starmer has a huge majority, he should not be feeling like he is in a ‘fight for the soul of the nation’.
The reality is that he should be behind in the polls at this point of the Parliament. No reforming government worth its salt would be leading in the polls whilst making the difficult decisions required to get the country back on the right path. The polls are not in and of themselves worrying.
By setting up next May’s local elections as “our mid-terms” (gross) he is asking us to define his short term success by how well he holds off Reform and whether Labour can demonstrate it is winning that fight for Britain’s soul or not.
Yes Reform’s policy on indefinite leave to remain was authoritarian and racist. Yes they are a party of cranks and reactionaries. But they are also a party that lots of people currently want to vote for. Focusing on them so much feels like a mistake this early in the Parliament, especially when next year is likely to be epochally bad for Labour councillors, and members of the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments.
What’s more worrying still is that, over a year into this government there remains no coherent strategy. Policies are disjointed, messaging seemingly decided on the hoof.
In the run-up to last year’s election there was talk of a decade of national renewal. Then came the five missions replacing the five pillars (or was it the other way around?) then to the island of strangers only to return to national renewal, positive patriotism, and the Britain of ‘painting a fence’.
There was another incoherence in Starmer’s speech. He says the purpose of his government is to return Britain to a state of strong economic growth. Yet he also name-checked the ruinous Employment Rights Bill set to heap risk and compliance costs on British businesses. The Prime Minister had the gall to suggest this would increase productivity – by what method it is patently unclear.
He stood full square behind industrial strategy – which doesn’t work – and raised the spectre of the ‘more muscular state’. Anybody who says the latter will crowd out private investment is wrong according to Starmer – well that’s alright then.
Then there’s the spectre of the budget, the £30 billion black hole in the government finances. Perhaps the most accurate line of Starmer’s speech was this: ‘It doesn’t get easier from here’.
The Prime Minister ruled out a wealth tax, good, but again the prospect shouldn’t have been allowed to fester for so many months, creating more uncertainty for individuals and businesses. At least the prospect of applying VAT to private health insurance was quashed after only a few days of media speculation.
We are still left to speculate on whether Labour will raise the three big taxes – Income Tax, National Insurance, and VAT – in the Autumn budget. We’ve got the best part of two months to work out what “the manifesto commitment stands for now” means. This government has yet to demonstrate its commitment to growth with action, many of its actions in fact suggest it is committed to the opposite.
If the Prime Minister had any sense he would be using his vast majority to push through difficult reforms. Don’t take no for an answer. If you really believe that growth is what the country needs then go and deliver it. Reform welfare, replace our discretionary planning system with a zonal one, take an axe to the ruinous amounts of money we are showering on pensioners (forgive the mixed metaphor, it is late), shatter council tax and put local government funding back together again as something better.
On this and more there are no plans. In the long-term the Prime Minister, as it stands, is screwed.
So why a successful conference then? Because it looked as if the Prime Minister was likely to be screwed well before the next election. Before Andy Burnham shot himself in the foot and advocated a spending splurge worthy of Liz Truss and a new economic policy of ‘not looking over our shoulder at the bond markets’. I’d love it if we weren’t so in hock to the bond markets, perhaps we should try borrowing less?
The Mancunian Che Guevara slumped back up north not even waiting to watch his leader’s speech. As much as I detest his politics this is better for him and the Labour party. There is little evidence that Andy Burnham can take the tough decisions Keir Starmer can’t.
Manchester is a well-run city but then this long pre-dates Burnham’s tenure as Mayor. He hasn’t had to turn a situation around. If he were to become Prime Minister now he would decimate his reputation and burn through another of his party’s lifelines. Much better to come in 6 months out from 2029 and do a Mark Carney.
Keir Starmer is safe for now. But his policies aren’t working and he still lacks a coherent direction. By defining himself against Reform he has merely kicked his fate a few months down the road. In May of next year, it will be clear he is losing the fight for the soul of the nation, when Reform sweep all before them, when Labour is reduced to ashes in Wales and Scotland.
Then we will be back here again as we have been so many times, guessing which will come first: the last combination of staff and ministers and slogans Starmer can try, or the end of his party’s patience with him. It doesn’t get easier from here indeed.
Thank you for reading Build Vector, if you’ve enjoyed this piece then please consider subscribing, it’s free and you have nothing to lose except a tiny portion of your life. You can find me on X @Jack_Nostalgic