No, We're Not Heading For A Hung Parliament
And it will only help Labour if people think we are...
Until last weekend the only evidence that the Tories were still up for the general election fight was Rishi Sunak's word. Coming from the human equivalent of a citation needed tag, it's no surprise the Prime Minister's beacon of hope has failed to warm the soul of his party. The Conservatives have suffered their worst local election defeat in 40 years. Yet, Sunak's big takeaway from the loss of nearly 500 councillors is that we're on course for a hung parliament. Except this time, he does have a source.
This prediction comes from modelling by Michael Thrasher for Sky News based on analysis of the local election results. Except, it fails to tell us much useful about how people might vote at the general election. That it's being eaten up by a Downing Street desperate for any note of positivity about their prospects is understandable. That reputable figures in the media are amplifying this message may be less so. But don't worry because it's all built on sand; we're not heading back to the heady days of 2017. There isn't going to be a hung parliament this year, here's why.
A Model In A Muddle
If you haven't seen the model in question then you clearly spent your bank holiday weekend more wisely than I did - but allow me to fill you in. Professor Michael Thrasher's model takes the voter data from Thursday's election and calculates a projected national vote of what percentage each party would have won were this a general election rather than lots of local elections. It then maps this data onto Westminster constituencies using uniform national swing - that support for each party in percentage terms will rise or fall at the same rate across the entire country.
The outcome of this method shows Labour on 294 seats and 35% of the vote, with the Tories on 242 seats and 26% of the vote, the Lib Dems bring up the rear with 38 seats on 16% of the vote. In other words, we're heading for a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party but a couple of dozen seats off a majority. In isolation it also suggests that Labour hasn't gained much ground from the 2023 local elections when they also beat the Tories by 9% in the popular vote.
So what's the problem? Well, the model doesn't take into account that people vote differently at local elections than they do in general elections. Thrasher's projected national vote has 22% going to independent candidates and minor parties. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Tunbridge Wells Alliance isn't going to be troubling the House of Commons come general election time.
There's a very big slice of the vote set to be redistributed when voters elect their MPs, and the polls suggest this will be anything but favourable to the Tories. It's just a hunch but I also think people stick with a hard-working local councillors even if they dislike the party they're standing for. National elections are just that and national issues tend to get in the way of the good that any individual MP may have done for their community.
Blind To Electoral Evolutions
Another big problem with the Thrasher/Sky News model is the assumptions it makes about bits of the UK that didn't vote on Thursday. Only parts of England and Wales voted last week, but the model assumes things have stayed broadly the same in Scotland as they have been in previous cycles. A cursory glance north of the border dispels this assumption. The SNP are in meltdown, the Thick of It tribute act Humza Yousaf has barely managed a year in office as First Minister, and the party has only just avoided a bonus leadership election to select his replacement. A recent Panelbase poll of Scottish voters put Labour ahead of the SNP for the first time in over a decade.
Similarly, the model overlooks the significance of where Labour did win votes on Thursday. Their vote share may only have been 35%, but the party didn’t just win in bellwethers like Nuneaton that it really needs to take in order to have a chance of a majority. It also won in deep blue Tory strongholds like Aldershot and North Yorkshire (where Rishi Sunak himself is an MP). It's hard to imagine a scenario where Labour makes such deep inroads into safe Conservative territory and doesn't come home with a very substantial majority.
The composition of the UK electorate has changed too much in the past five years for universal national swing to paint an accurate picture of where voters' heads are at. The general consensus following Labour's meltdown in December 2019 was that they needed a lead of 12% over the Tories to win a majority of 1. This was primarily because they were so far behind the SNP in Scotland. Based on changing patterns of voting across the UK today, Labour's minimum margin of victory is likely to be in the mid-single figures.
When you consider not just how many votes Labour won but where they won them, and when you set this in the broader electoral context, a 9 point lead is a comfortable position to be in. And that's before you take into account the independent/minor party vote. Given all of this, it initially surprised me that so many parts of the media seemed to take the model so seriously over the weekend. Then I thought about it some more.
It's The Narrative, Stupid
I think the honest answer to why the model seemed to catch so much attention is mostly just boredom. We've been told for ages that Labour are on course for a landslide, political weirdos - myself included - have stopped paying so much attention to the polls. It's just less compelling when Labour are racking up 25 point leads every week. And the media need to grow their listenership, increase clicks, and drive subscriptions; they have a big stake in unexpected news.
I don't think this is disingenuousness - from most commentators anyway - rather a will to believe angles that make politics more exciting or unexpected even if they're not entirely sound. This is a bigger topic but it may also help to explain why so many people started saying Susan Hall was going to beat Sadiq Khan in the race for City Hall last Friday.
The narrative has tremendous power to shape how we perceive politics and our politicians. If the "Labour are going to fall short" narrative takes hold it will be ironic - I think it will do as much to ensure a Labour majority as anything Keir Starmer does. In the past half-century, only two elections have produced hung parliaments: 2010 and 2017. Neither were expected. In both cases, the general consensus 6 months beforehand was that the Conservatives were going to win; it was only much closer to polling day that the prospect of the Tories falling short was considered.
Compare that to 2015 when a hung parliament was considered beyond doubt and then David Cameron squeaked home, or 2019 when the polls began to narrow as the campaign wore on and progressives started whispering excitedly about the prospect Johnson might do a Theresa May and blow his poll lead. Expectation has an effect on voter turnout and intention; some will only bother to vote if they think the election isn't a foregone conclusion. Equally, the threat of an unstable hung parliament can drive enough voters to support the party most likely to be able to form a strong government.
There's a narrow path to a hung parliament at the 2024 General Election (I will combust if Sunak waits until January). Labour remains far ahead in the polls, its supporters consider the election done and dusted, they've got better things to do with their Thursdays than head down to the polling station to vote for a party who are going to win anyway.
Enough wavering Tories decide not to stay at home in a sort of reverse-2017 effect; if Labour are going to win, they don't want them to win a landslide. They aren't keen on what the Tories have become and think they deserve a term out of office, but don't want them banished from power for a generation. These two groups combine to produce a highly unexpected outcome on Friday morning.
If the media continue to talk up the "Labour aren't going to make it" narrative, this dynamic reverses. The wavering Tories have no reason to come out and support a beleaguered government they don't particularly want to win anyway, and voters desperate to get rid of the Tories are scared enough to make time to vote - and vote tactically where necessary. Labour win big and the Tories lose badly as a result.
The 2024 Local Elections were the best of all worlds for Labour. A catastrophic Tory meltdown in the blue wall and a Labour drive deep into Tory territory. The Conservative rebels have stood down, ensuring their party's dud of a Prime Minister remains in post. And some slightly disingenuous modelling has introduced just enough doubt to guard against progressive complacency. For Keir Starmer, the job is almost done.
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