At the start of the year I wrote that I was sceptical of Reform UK’s prospects. Since then, the party swept the board in May’s local elections and remains well ahead of the competition in national polls.
I find myself in an odd position. On the one hand, I feel more ominous about the state of the country than I did in January. A Reform-induced cataclysm is approaching in the rear-view mirror. On the other, I’m even more convinced than I was then that Reform are overpriced. In light of this week’s immigration announcement I thought I’d revisit this thesis.
I feel more ominous about the state of the country than I did in January. A Reform-induced cataclysm is approaching in the rear-view mirror.
The party announced its new immigration policy to much fanfare on Monday. The most important measure was a pledge to abolish Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), replacing it with a renewable five-year visa which will be closed to anybody who has broken the law or claimed benefits. The salary threshold for work visas will also increase from roughly £41,700 to £60,000. Crucially, this will apply not just to new arrivals but those who are already here too.
I’m agnostic on the principle of abolishing ILR for new arrivals (I’m tempted but it’s an issue I’d like to look into more). But stripping rights from people who have already been granted them is morally repugnant. With the increase in salary thresholds, people who have followed the rules in good faith, obeyed the law, and are working and paying tax in Britain will, under a Reform government, face deportation.
I’m always wary of people who throw the word “fascist” at policies they disagree with – there has to be a high bar, otherwise you just end up looking like the boy who cried Hitler. But this is the first time a Reform policy announcement has felt, to me, like a promised assault on democracy.
If the government can void yesterday’s settlements at the stroke of a pen then nobody can have any faith in today’s law. If one set of rights can be stripped retrospectively then the bar is lowered to take other rights away too. It also erodes trust in the UK at a time when the world is unstable and authenticity carries a premium.
It would be naive to think that this just affects immigrants. A government willing to subvert the rule of law in such a way will have no qualms about coming for anybody who stands in their path, native or not. It’s an unconscionable policy that would set a dangerous precedent.
Happily, I think Reform has misjudged things – Farage has overplayed his hand. It’s true that immigration has been too high for too long, and many aspects of our current system are too lenient.
Our government – by which I mean the general institution not the Labour administration – seems to find it difficult to tell the difference between genuine refugees and economic migrants. We’re bringing people to Britain faster than we can manage the cultural change and enforce liberal values.
Too often, we end up stuck with the worst sorts of criminals just because there’s a tiny risk of something bad happening if we deport them. People are fed up and they want a fairer migration system.
But this cuts both ways, and for most this doesn’t translate into the deranged anti-migrant sentiment seen at Tommy Robinson’s rallies. Deporting people who are obeying our laws and paying our taxes won’t wash with voters. It’ll also impact British people with foreign partners.
The rather boring Goodwin types tends to use polling as their weapon of choice when defending such dismal policies. But the more you dig into the numbers the less favourable they seem.
According to YouGov, 45% of people back an immigration system where numbers coming in are radically reduced and requiring “large numbers of migrants who came to the UK in recent years to leave”. That’s certainly enough to win an election if immigration is the most salient issue, right?
A government willing to subvert the rule of law in such a way will have no qualms about coming for anybody who stands in their path, native or not.
Look a little closer though and we see that figure is based on a warped understanding of immigration dynamics – in particular the balance between legal and illegal migration, which people skew wildly towards the latter.
Of those polled by YouGov, some 47% thought there were more illegal migrants than legal migrants in Britain today, while 8% thought the numbers were roughly equal. The actual figure is difficult to measure but, according to Pew Research, falls somewhere around 800,000 out of a total foreign-born population of roughly 10.5 million. Even Reform Chairman Zia Yusuf puts the figure at 1.2 million, only 10% of all the migrants in the UK.
This provides some context for the findings further down the poll because YouGov also asked respondents who they would like to see deported. Of those who wanted any deportations at all, only half wanted to deport low-skilled migrants currently in work. For skilled migrants – which Reform’s salary threshold would no doubt also entangle – the figure falls as low as 19% depending on the sector.
So the effects of Reform’s latest policy are supported by less than a quarter of the population at best. The party would deport thousands of people that even the most anti-migration segment of the population don’t want to see sent home.
You might say that this doesn’t matter – Reform will lie and people will believe them anyway. But I think this misunderstands the reason for their rise in support. So far, the party has done a great job of appearing more moderate than it actually is, and wanting controls on immigration is a pretty moderate position in the Britain of 2025.
This is crucial to their chances at the next election. Reform’s opponents are constantly calling them a bunch of extremists, but if you can nurture a more mainstream image then it’s your opponents who look full of hyperbole. Of course, there are plenty of dyed-in-the-wool reactionaries who support Reform, but if only those people were supporting the party then they wouldn’t be polling much more than the low teens they were averaging last year.
This is what makes the immigration announcement such an unforced error. The party had been hitting the sweet spot on migration just as it had become the most salient issue with the public. There is no credible force to the right of Reform on immigration. The majority of the electorate are repulsed by figures like Tommy Robinson even if they want to bring numbers right down.
The party is acting like it is heading for power and doesn’t need to care about winning people over (Neil Kinnock in Sheffield circa 1992 much?). Their conference earlier this month felt more like a victory parade than a policy gathering. It gives us a glimpse of what the party might do with untrammelled power, when it thinks people aren’t paying attention.
They are celebrating too soon – the current voting intention polls flatter Reform’s chances. It’s true the party has led for much of this year and on paper those leads of 8–10% look big. But the party is merely the largest player in a fractured political landscape.
Being 10 points ahead when you are on 29% of the vote is nothing to crow about. That’s less than Jeremy Corbyn won during Labour’s historic drubbing of 2019. Right now, with the Tories and Labour in the gutter, it seems like Reform’s rise is irresistible. But in absolute terms their support is both low and shallow, Farage’s large lead is no reflection of enthusiasm amongst the general public.
If they were approaching 40% I might be concerned, but I really don’t think the other parties need to do much to make things at least competitive again. Neither Labour nor the Tories are going to have the same leader this time next year, never mind in 2029. A better Tory leader than Badenoch would still be a long shot to win a majority but would take at least some wavering voters on the right who would otherwise jump into bed with Farage.
This is before we consider the impact of tactical voting. If we get close to 2029 and Reform still look like winning, you can bank on progressives up and down the country throwing their weight behind whichever party is best placed to defeat Reform, just as they backed whichever candidate was best placed to beat the Tories in 2024. The more frightening Reform become, the more likely we are to see mass tactical voting.
To win in 2029, Reform need to broaden their coalition and continue to hit the sweet spot on perceived areas of government failure. If they tack to the extremes they won’t win new voters and will sow doubt among some of their existing ones.
I’m drawn back to 2024 when Farage seemed to blame NATO for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and stalled his surge in support. The party already has enough vulnerabilities – Farage’s brittle ego and dislike of sharing power, their lack of experience, their ludicrously expensive fiscal policies – this week it added another. Reform UK remains heavily overpriced.
Thank you for reading Build Vector, if you’ve enjoyed this piece then please consider subscribing, it’s free and you have nothing to lose except a tiny portion of your life. You can find me on X @Jack_Nostalgic