British Politics' Nightmare Scenario
Or why the Lib Dems are keeping me up at night...
Sleepless nights have become rather more common for me lately. My insomnia ebbs and flows but at the moment it is less flowing and more gushing. I’ve tried everything to identify the cause but to no avail. Until the early hours of this morning that is. As the light developed the temerity to push past my - frankly inadequate - curtains and put an end to another restless night, the culprit for my sleep deprivation became obvious to me; it’s the Liberal Democrats. I know what you’re thinking - he’s gone mad, that’s what lack of sleep does to a man. But before you ask me if I’ve tried Sleepeaze or leaving my phone outside the bedroom or meditation - of course I bloody have I’m an insomniac - allow me to explain why the thought of Ed Davey’s party keeps me up at night.
The elusive Lib Dem revival?
Lib Dem conference began over the weekend and reporting has focused more on what the party isn’t doing than what it is. Their unwillingness to adopt a “rejoin” position on the EU has drawn criticism from the centrist wing of the British media. Prophet of polling himself Professor Sir John Curtice weighed in too, arguing in The Independent that the party’s strategy is bleeding support to Labour:
In short, there is little sign that the Liberal Democrats have profited from their silence on Brexit. With little to differentiate between themselves and Labour on Brexit, they have seemingly left themselves at risk of losing voters on the pro-EU side of the Brexit debate to Sir Keir Starmer’s party, while reaping relatively little reward among Brexiteers.
It is true that the Lib Dems are not riding high in the polls. This is despite the fact that on the surface the fundamentals look good for the party. They win fewer seats when Labour has an unpopular leader who scares the horses but our equine friends are positively unbothered by Keir Starmer. So too, does the party usually find itself “winning here” when the Conservatives are unpopular. Well there’s a big check mark there, Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has plumbed new depths and is now as bad as Boris Johnson’s was towards the end of his premiership. So is Brexit policy the real reason Ed Davey can’t tell his candidates to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government?
Well I’m not actually convinced the Lib Dems are in as underwhelming a position as many seem to think they are. For a start the Lib Dems usually poll better in election periods when as a smaller party they benefit from the increased coverage given to them by broadcasting rules. I also think that there are large areas of the country - the South West, Mid Wales, bits of Scotland - where Labour are very unlikely to win and the Lib Dems become the default anti-Tory option. In other words there are a fair few seats that will vote Lib Dem not out of any huge enthusiasm but because they don’t want a Tory government.
The Tories’ - slightly - improving fortunes
There’s are also though some faint signs that electoral fortunes more generally could be changing - even if only a little. Our anaemic economy is very slowly improving, the ONS recently uprated our post-covid growth rate after previously underestimating it. Inflation too, is falling slightly faster than expected and last week the Bank of England kept the base rate the same, bucking the trend of 14 consecutive rises. There is talk that the cost of living crisis is easing. None of which is to say that the Tories will win the next election. Far too many aspects of our country’s polity are broken for Sunak to have a route back to Number 10. But I don’t think they will do as badly as the polls currently suggest.
Elections are usually won and lost on the state of the economy and if Sunak chooses - as he should - to go into an election next spring on the back of an improving one then his party will do better than is currently projected. This is not to defend the state of our economy, little bits of growth will not undo a decade-plus of policy failure but it could well cushion the blow to the Tories. Conversely if the economy improves it will get harder for Labour to lead on the issue and they will have to try and move the conversation onto areas in which they are stronger - like public services.
It’s often said that Keir Starmer - despite being 20 points ahead in the polls - is no Tony Blair. People often forget that Blair’s greatest electoral achievement was not just winning a landslide in ‘97 but ousting a government presiding over a roaring economy. The dynamics of that Parliament bear some similarity to this one. The Tories crashed the economy, Labour sprung ahead in the polls, then the Tories fixed the economy and the polls narrowed but ultimately this wasn’t enough to stop the electoral messiah, Tony Blair, from winning.
The situation in 2023 differs in many ways too though. Although the Tories are perceived to have crashed the economy - the economy wasn’t doing too great under them in the preceding years either. Whilst things are looking up now it’s more a case of the the Tories having made a slightly less bad mess than initially expected rather than the creation of a strong economic legacy in the style of John Major. Starmer is no Blair but his task is easier. But he really is no Blair and the public remain broadly unconvinced by Labour. A really broken but slightly improving country + lack of enthusiasm for the opposition will in my book result in a Labour victory but a fairly modest one.
And suddenly I’m wide awake and we’re back round to the Lib Dems. The truth is Ed Davey and co. may not have to win that many seats to have sizeable influence in the next parliament. A small Labour majority would empower them and - *shudders* - a hung parliament would make Davey kingmaker. Curtice predicts the party are on track to win just 30 seats, that could turn out to be quite a few. Which makes what they are saying far more significant than any concerns about their policy on Brexit.
From the frying pan into the fire
So what are the Lib Dems saying, what do they really believe? Terrible things. The Liberal Democrats have done huge amounts of damage to our country over the past 15 or so years. In coalition they enabled a terrible economic strategy which funnelled money away from young and working people and their families and towards rich retirees. Since being booted out of government they have spent their time campaigning against any attempt to solve this country’s planning crisis.
The Lib Dems work by going into a community, finding an infrastructure project or housing development and then mobilising that community’s homeowners into opposing it. They then reap the electoral rewards. That such actions kill communities is of no consequence to the Liberal Democrats. They block housing while a housing shortage depresses our growth and impoverishes working-age people. They block reservoirs while our taps run dry. They then have the gall to pretend to be the good guys and to be standing up for LiBEraL bRiTaIN.
The noises coming from Lib Dem conference suggest little is going to change. The Times reports that blocking development on the greenbelt would be a “redline” for Davey in any potential coalition talks with Labour. Not content with sabotaging the Tories previous efforts to build more homes, they now want to kneecap Labour’s economic strategy too.
I’m not a massive fan of the Labour party and I’m not on the left but Keir Starmer might just have some of the solutions to our biggest problem - our inability to build anything and the consequent rigging of our economy in favour of rich pensioners. And thus an increase in the toxic influence of the Lib Dems represents a nightmare scenario for British politics. It’s keeping me up at night. We are on the cusp of kicking out a useless incarnation of the Conservative party led by an illiberal managerialist. But what follows could just be years of the Lib Dems allying with NIMBY elements within the Labour party to block any hope of reversing Britain’s decline. There are a lot of voters who hate the Tories and just want them out. But they have to be careful not to usher in something worse.
So now you know why I can’t sleep. What was that? Have I tried replacing the curtains with a blackout blind? Well perhaps I could afford one if the Lib Dems constant NIMBYism hadn’t left me spending most of my income on rent. All I want is a YIMBY government and a night not filled with visions of Ed Davey and his giant blue clock. It remains to be seen which of those goals is more likely.
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