Biden Needs A New Venezuela Strategy

The Venezuela-Guyana crisis shows the danger of giving in to dictators

In October, the White House lifted sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for woolly commitments to democracy. Since then, Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s socialist dictator, has taken the Biden Administration for a ride. The stakes have now risen as the Maduro regime threatens the oil-rich Essequibo region of neighboring Guyana. 

The crisis is escalating with the UK sending a naval warship to the region and Venezuela responding with aggressive military exercises. Faced with this challenge, Biden has a choice: continue to embolden one of the world’s most nefarious dictators or reassert American strength in the national, regional, and global interest.

Biden’s motivation to reintegrate Venezuela into the global economy stems from two key pressures. First, reducing energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spiked oil and gas markets. Second, managing the crisis at the Southern Border, where Venezuelans have fled their collapsing homeland in droves - they were the most common nationality arriving at the border prior to the October summit. Solving these issues is pivotal to Biden’s re-election in November.

Out of desperation, the White House has simply empowered the Venezuelan dictator. In Barbados in October, the Biden Administration departed sharply from President Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy. The new softer approach provided the Maduro regime a path in from the cold but failed to set clear boundaries for the reimposition of sanctions should Venezuela not meet its vague commitments on democracy.

Maduro’s position has only been strengthened by this weak strategy. Venezuela’s opposition primary outcome was suspended and reports of voter intimidation, ballot box theft, and gun violence were rife. The anticipated $10 billion windfall from the end of sanctions will enable Maduro to pay off his cronies and strengthen his grip on power.

His election rival, María Corina Machado, won 92% of the opposition primary vote and would almost certainly win a free and fair election. Maduro is left searching for any reason to further encroach upon democracy, and President Biden has provided him plenty of room for maneuver. Reigniting a century-old dispute over the Essequibo region of Guyana provides fertile ground for Maduro to cause a regional crisis.

Essequibo accounts for around two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, and the discovery of oil there in 2015 has turbocharged the Guyanese economy. Maduro has taken steps to claim the territory, first with a sham referendum last month to recognize it as a province of Venezuela, then with drilling licenses for the state energy firm. He has accused the opposition of attempts to sabotage the referendum and used this to justify phoney investigations into political rivals. 

Maduro’s actions have drawn international condemnation, but the US response has been tepid. If this isn’t enough to encourage Biden to rethink his Venezuela strategy, it’s hard to see what is. This begs the question: does the trade-off of Venezuelan cooperation justify empowering Maduro’s dictatorship? 

For Venezuelans suffering under his economic incompetence and harsh oppression, the answer is no. The assessment is similarly negative for Guyanese facing an existential threat to their sovereignty. Maduro’s continued leadership, bolstered by oil and gas revenue, poses a threat to regional stability.

For America, and Biden personally, the consequences are not worth it either. The fear of losing Maduro’s cooperation on the border issue and a rise in energy prices in an election year loom large. However, Venezuela’s contribution to energy markets has been less than anticipated due to infrastructural decay, and it is Chinese firms that Venezuela seems most interested in, not American ones. 

Guyana, meanwhile, is set to hit oil output of 1.2 million barrels a day within the next three years. While the country has its problems, it is a free one, in stark contrast to Venezuela and any war between two oil-producing countries will destabilize global energy prices anyway. It is clear that in the absence of accountability, Maduro will do as he pleases; he is not a partner to be relied upon in any context.

President Biden now faces a critical decision: continue with a cautious approach that emboldens America’s enemies and exacerbates regional instability, or take action against Maduro. As long as Maduro undermines democracy and collaborates with the evil regimes of the world, his own regime should face sanctions and maximum pressure.  The alternative is the persistence of the notion that America is a power in decline, led by weak men — incidentally factors that will damage Biden’s re-election chances.

For the sake of American leadership, global security, and if nothing else, his own political future, Biden must change course on Venezuela. The Essequibo crisis presents an opportunity for Biden to uphold American and Western strategic interests. In this defining moment, the choice between weakness and strength is clear — Biden must opt for strength.

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